Election Predictions

Charlie Summers will best Dean Scontras by a sizeable margin. It will be too hard for Scontras to overcome the high name identification of Summers. This is not to say that it could not have been done, but Scontras had a poorly run campaign. It did not conserve cash and consequently he could not really get his message out to voters.

Prediction: Summers 59 %, Scontras 41 %

The Democratic race is much tougher to predict, but I am going to stick with the frontrunner and pick Chellie Pingree. Along with Ethan Strimling, Pingree should have the best GOTV operation in the 1st CD. Furthermore, she has run the most ads and already has a solid reputation in the district. Adam Cote has put up a spirited challenge and could emerge victorious if the liberal candidates all split the votes fairly evenly, but I doubt that will happen. Mark Lawrence and Michael Brennan have run uninspired campaigns and will probably be stuck in the single digits. They are fortunate that no public polls have been released, otherwise they would probably perform even more poorly because people would feel like they were wasting a vote. So, to recap, I believe Pingree will win on the strength of her experience, organization, and financial expenditures, but only be a small margin. Adam Cote will finish a strong second and Ethan Strimling could challenge him for that spot if he slightly over performs.

Prediction: Pingree 30.5 %, Cote 28 %, Strimling 24 %, Lawrence 11 %, Brennan 6 %, Meister 0.5 %