Expected Voter Turnout

The Secretary of State was expecting about 30-35 % of registered voters to cast ballots today. I have listed below the latest figures available from the Secretary of State's Office on voter registration in the 1st CD.

1st CD Voter Registration

Republicans- 138,893
Democrats- 156,331
Independents- 189,736

Total: 499,194

Democrats in the 1st District are highly energized this year, both because of national trends and because of the intense congressional primary. In 1996, when Tom Allen narrowly won a primary victory in the 1st District congressional race, more than 50,000 people cast ballots in the Democratic primary. I would expect an even higher number to have voted today. I think you will see about 35-40 % of all Democratic registered voters in CD1 to vote.  

Republicans are less energized nationally, but they still have a competitive primary going on today between Dean Scontras and Charlie Summers.  During the past several years, there have been uncontested primaries and about 30,000 people have voted in the Republican primary.  In 1994, when there was a contested primary that Jim Longley Jr. won, roughly 40,000 people voted. I would expect a higher turnout than recent primaries, but less percentage wise than the Democrats.  

Independents can vote in either primary, but I would expect that anywhere from 2/3 to 3/4 will opt to take a Democratic primary ballot. More independents in Maine tend to be Democratic leaning and the presence of Adam Cote, a moderate Democrat, should make that trend even more marked. In addition, the Democratic primary has more candidates and has been more hotly contested. More money has been spent by Democratic candidates, appealing to more voters. The Republican brand is also unpopular right now.  

Projecting this all out I would expect about 40,000 people to vote in the Republican primary today. For the Democrats, I am going to predict that about 60,000 people will vote in that primary.