Political Roundup

Ethan Strimling was endorsed by the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) this weekend. According to a campaign press release, the union has about 3,000 members in the state of Maine. The endorsement was something nice for the Strimling campaign to tout, but in reality it will have little effect. The endorsement was made during the final weekend of the campaign and therefore there is little time to mobilize AFSCME members on Strimling's behalf. If made a couple of weeks earlier, the endorsement could have had a real impact.  

http://www.ethan08.com/n/afscme-endorses-strimling-his-support-working-fami/

The Credit Union National Association has made a large investment in the 1st CD race backing Adam Cote. The group, which represents the national credit union industry, has made $ 112,000 in independent expenditures on Cote's behalf thus far. There has been substantial criticism by rival campaigns of these independent expenditures and the PAC money that Cote has received.  The Cote campaign has implicitly suggested that it has not sought out PAC money and that has simply come to them as a result of agreement on the issues. 

It is important to recognize, however, that Cote received nearly $ 39,000 in PAC contributions since April 1st. In addition, the spokesman for the Credit Union National Association told the Portland Press Herald that it only makes independent expenditures on behalf of one or two candidates per election cycle. Considering these facts, it seems pretty clear that the Cote campaign must have been actively seeking these outside contributions.  He has received much more PAC money than most of the other candidates in the race, and yet he is not the presumed frontrunner.  The only way the Cote campaign could have amassed all of this PAC money is by actively soliciting and meeting with the groups. Here is a link to the story...

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192609&ac=

CQ Politics has a nice overview of the 1st CD race in Maine. Anthony Corrado, a superb politcal science professor at Colby College, told CQ Politics that Ethan Strimling has not capitalized on the opportunity to challenge Pingree. I tend to agree with this view... I think that Strimling will perform well, but not well enough to actually challenge Pingree for a victory. The article zeroes in on Adam Cote and Chellie Pingree as the two viable contenders on the Democratic side and suggests that Charlie Summers is well positioned to pick up the Republican nod.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002891310&parm1=5&cpage=1

Secretary of State Matt Dunlap is projecting a turnout of between 30-35 % for tomorrow's primary. That would be much a higher turnout than is typical for a primary election. I will have my own projection on turnout posted on the blog tomorrow...

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192728&ac=

The Portland Press Herald also had a story about voter outreach in yesterday's paper. The story talks about how close recent contested primaries have been in the 1st District and how voter outreach has been key. When Tom Allen won the Democratic primary in 1996, for example, he bested his rival candidate by less than 2,000 votes. Primaries always have lower turnout than general election, and for that reason voter outreach is more important than it will be in November. If a particular campaign has a top notch GOTV operation, it could make a big difference in their overall vote total on Tuesday. I would expect that Chellie Pingree will have a superior turnout effort, as compared to newcomer Adam Cote, and that could be the difference between a win and a loss for her.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192702&ac=