Media Presence

How much of a media presence have each of the campaigns had over the past few weeks? Well, we know that Adam Cote has been earning a lot of free media, although lately much of that free media has been negative. The other candidates have also received a fair share of free media, especially during the past couple of weeks. The Portland Press Herald and other newspapers in the 1st District have covered the race consistently. There have been numerous TV and radio debates between the candidates over the past couple of weeks. The local morning and evening news broadcasts have featured stories on the candidates. And, there has been substantial coverage of the 1st CD race on the Internet.  

Most voters, however, have not seen very much of this free media. It is, therefore, incumbent upon the candidates to reach out as vigorously as possible to potential voters through paid media. A typical congressional campaign will want to spend at least 30 % of their operating expenses on television and radio, with additional money set aside for direct mail. Let's quickly take a look at expenditures on paid media by the 1st CD Democratic candidates. We have expense reports available through May 21st of this year...

Chellie Pingree

May 8th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 72,000

May 12th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 65,000

May 16th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 88,350

Total Cost of Media Buys: $ 225,350 

Mark Lawrence

May 19th- $ 83,938

Michael Brennan

April 16th- Purchased Media Buy of $23,583

May 6th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 5,190

May 14th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 7,670

May 19th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 7,945

Total Cost of Media Buys: $ 44,388

Adam Cote

May 9th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 183,378

Ethan Strimling

May 20th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 187,000

The Pingree campaign has spent the most on paid advertising to date, though Ethan Strimling and Adam Cote are competitive with her on the airwaves. Their campaigns had both purchased approximately $ 185,000 for TV and radio air time as of May 21st, when the latest FEC reports were filed. Chellie Pingree made a slightly larger media buy (about $ 225,000) and she retained $ 100,000 more in primary funds that she could spend on the race as of May 21st. While Cote and Strimling both had less than $ 80,000 left in their campaign treasuries on May 21st, Pingree had nearly $ 200,000 that she could still spend for the primary. Almost certainly, she has made additional media buys since that time. Her campaign has dominated the TV airwaves during May and June, with four well done advertisements that showcase her progressive credentials to voters.  

Despite being outspent on paid media by Pingree, the Cote and Strimling campaigns are still in a position to nab a victory on Tuesday. Reaching spending parity with Pingree was never a realistic goal... the campaigns simply needed to get enough air time to disseminate their own messages. The Maine media market is quite cheap to advertise in and every indicator suggests that Cote and Strimling have been able to buy enough advertising time to get their messages out to voters.  

Most of the television advertisements that have aired during this race have been on the major networks, particularly during the morning and evening news. It does not make sense for a congressional candidate to advertise to a national audience, as they would have to do on cable networks, so they mostly stick to the local affiliates of ABC, FOX, NBC, and CBS. Last week, I talked to people in the advertising departments at WCSH and WMTW to find out some information on the cost of advertising on their stations and both networks were kind enough to oblige.  

Advertising on WCSH is the most expensive of the four Portland TV affiliates because its new broadcasts get the highest ratings. To run a 30 second television ad on the WCSH 6:00 PM News would cost a campaign about $ 1,000, while the same ad would cost $ 300 to run on the 5:00 PM News and $ 250 to run on the 11:00 PM News. The cost of running an ad on WMTW is much cheaper. For the 6:00 PM news, a 30 second political ad would cost $ 400. Interestingly, to run an ad from 7-9 AM will only cost a campaign about $ 85. I also asked WCSH how much it would cost to run a 30 second ad during primetime (8:00-11:00 PM) and was told, depending on the show, that I should expect to pay between $ 750 and $ 1,000. Radio advertisements are even cheaper.  

As you can see, political advertising in Maine is a relative bargain. According to a story in the Portland Press Herald, a block of 80 advertisements on WCSH would cost a campaign about $ 20,000. That amount of advertising would not be close to reaching media saturation, which means Michael Brennan and to a lesser extent Mark Lawrence, are in trouble. But campaigns spending $ 200,000 and above on advertising could run at least 1,000 television ads, which is plenty. 

Based on the quality of television advertisements and the amount spent on media buys, it would appear that Chellie Pingree and Adam Cote have reaped the most benefit from paid media. They both have run effective ads and have spent considerable sums on television and radio. Mark Lawrence has been the big loser in terms of paid media. He has similar fundraising numbers to Adam Cote and Ethan Strimling but is only spending half as much as their campaigns on advertising. Furthermore, the one ad that Lawrence is running right now does not serve him well, as it tries to portray him as a left-wing crusader out to impeach President Bush. It does not discuss his record of competence and moves him away from his reputation as a political moderate.  

Look for a write up on the Republican media presence in the 1st CD tomorrow or Monday...

Trivia Question

The other day I zeroed in on Chellie Pingree's fundraising and found that nearly 3/4 of her donations have come from out of state. Pingree has raised money from Washington D.C. and the Virgin Islands, but here is the trivia question: how many states has Pingree received donations from during her campaign for Congress?

I will post the answer tomorrow evening...

Political Roundup

Republican 1st CD candidate Dean Scontras made a great move yesterday to gain some media attention. He offered to pay for the state and federal gas taxes for all motorists fueling their cars in Manchester, ME. This did not cost the campaign much money at all (it paid the taxes for about 100 motorists), but it got substantial press coverage. During this campaign cycle, a number of campaigns nationally have used this gimmick to get media attention. Most of those campaigns have offered to pay in full for motorists to fill up, not just for their taxes. The Scontras campaign, however, is broke and could not afford to do that. Quick below for the full story:

http://www.sunjournal.com/story/268653-3/MaineNews/Candidate_gives_gastax_rebates/

Continuing on the Republican race, the Portland Press Herald had story today about the TV debate on MPBN between Dean Scontras and Charlie Summers. The story focuses on the differences between Scontras and Summers on their views about Iraq. The problem is that this story epitomizes how lame the mainstream media has been in covering the race for the 1st District. For one thing, there is virtually no difference in Summers' and Scontras' positions on Iraq. Furthermore, this story was probably written in twenty minutes...

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192395&ac=PHnws

The Democratic race is seeing a lot of sniping between the candidates in the closing days of the campaign. Ethan Strimling, in particular, seems eager to pick fights with his fellow candidates. This Portland Press story details the back and forth and wisely points out that no independent polling has been done in this race. It will be refreshing to see voters head to the polls without having to look at polls beforehand. Interestingly, the outcome of the race very will could hinge on this lack of polling. Mark Lawrence and Michael Brennan should be non-factors in this race, but many of their voters might not realize they have no shot of winning. Mr. Cote stands to benefit most from this scenario occurring. In any case, here is the story:

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192244&ac=

Two new campaign commercials now on the airwaves in the 1st CD race. Ethan Strimling has released a new advertisement touting a bill that he passed in the State Senate to provide property tax relief to Mainers. This ad is effective, especially since none of the other candidates have ads airing that talk about the mortgage crisis. Having all the different people talk highly of Ethan is great, but does anyone else feel like Ethan looks like a dope in these commercials?

Strimling Ad- "My Castle"



The other new advertisement comes from the Cote campaign. It is very simple, but also very effective for a fairly unknown candidate like Cote. The ad highlights the endorsement of Cote by the Portland Press Herald and then basically repeats his qualifications from the campaign's first two TV ads. The endorsement of a major paper like the Press Herald is a great catch for Cote because many voters will now feel more comfortable with him. He is an unknown, and some people are probably wary of voting for him, even if they like some of his message. The endorsement serves as validation for him.

Word on the street is that many moderate Republican voters are crossing over to vote for Cote in the Democratic primary. State Senator Karl Turner was one of them.

Cote Ad- "One Democrat Stands Out"

A Closer Look at Chellie Pingree's Fundraising

Chellie Pingree has raised a staggering $ 1,359,666 for her congressional campaign, more than twice as much as her closest competitors for the 1st CD seat. How is this possible? Where is Chellie raising all of this money from? Well, an analysis of her FEC reports reveals some pretty startling information. Just take a look at this...

Top 10 States Contributing to Pingree Campaign

(Itemized Contributions as of 5/21/2008)

1. New York- $ 316,037.22 

2. Maine- $ 294,233.90

3. Connecticut- $ 97,725 

4. California- $ 81,150 

5. New Jersey- $ 48,825

6. Massachusetts- $ 44,350

7. Washington D.C.- $ 42,025

8. Pennsylvania- $ 23,250 

9. Virgin Islands- $ 23,000

10. Florida- $ 19,050 

*Contributions are itemized on a FEC report if the donor who is making the contribution has given $ 200 or more to the candidate

If your reaction was "I thought Chellie was running for office in Maine?" then you are not alone. Everyone knows that Chellie is a very connected person nationally, especially after her time as President of Common Cause, but who could possibly have expected her to have raised more from New York donors than Maine donors.

What if Chellie had not raised all this money from out of state? Well, interestingly, she would not even lead the pack in itemized contributions...

Money Raised from Maine Donors

(Itemized Contributions as of 5/21/2008)

1. Ethan Strimling- $ 334,297.12 

2. Chellie Pingree- $ 294,233.90

3. Adam Cote- $ 270,476

The dreaded FEC reports also show that Pingree has the highest percentage of out of state donations of any candidate in the 1st CD race. A whopping 73.1 % of her $ 1,095,270 in itemized contributions come from non-Maine based donors. In fact, the $ 801,037.22 she has raised from non-Maine donors beats the overall fundraising mark of Ethan Strimling, her closest competitor in the money race, by over $180,000. Here is the data that shows out of state contributions for the CD1 candidates:

Michael Brennan:

Out of State Donations- $ 45,585

Total Itemized Donations- $ 158,002

% From Outside of Maine- 28.9 %

Adam Cote:

Out of State Donations- $ 168,226

Total Itemized Donations- $ 438,702

% From Outside of Maine- 38.3 %

Chellie Pingree:

Out of State Donations- $ 801,037.22

Total Itemized Donations- $ 1,095,270.12

% From Outside of Maine- 73.1 %

Mark Lawrence:

Out of State Donations- $ 120,147

Total Itemized Donations- $ 357,780

% From Outside of Maine- 33.6 %

Ethan Strimling:

Out of State Donations- $ 176,260

Total Itemized Donations- $ 510,757.12

% From Outside of Maine- 34.5 %

Dean Scontras:

Out of State Donations- $ 118,100

Total Itemized Donations- $ 206,803

% From Outside of Maine- 57.1 %

Charlie Summers: 

Out of State Donations- $ 38,250

Total Itemized Donations- $ 152,642.85

% From Outside of Maine- 25.1 %

So, the next time you turn on the television and see a Chellie Pingree ad, just remember one thing.... the ad was probably paid for by out of state contributors.      

More Television Ads

Here are some more of the TV ads being run by the Democratic candidates in the 1st CD.  Adam Cote has produced some excellent ads that complement his message as a competent outsider with a good feel for the issues.  Cote's first ad, a biographical piece, is the only 60 second ad that has aired in the race.  The ad opens with a seemingly uninspired Adam Cote speaking to the camera, but the rest of the ad features moving footage of Cote meeting with business leaders, serving in Iraq, and meeting with Maine families.  It does a great job of showcasing Cote's biography and how his previous life experiences would serve him well in Congress.  His second ad is equally effectively, emphasizing his positions on the issues and clearly separating himself from the other Democratic contenders as the most thoughtful and substantive.  I have one criticism for Cote in these advertisements and also more generally, and that is that he needs to show more emotion and passion when he speaks.  

Best Ad- Adam Cote Biographical Ad

Adam Cote's Second Ad

Mark Lawrence is a candidate who has been flying under the radar during this primary.  But he has accrued an impressive list of endorsements, as documented on his website.  As the District Attorney of York County, Lawrence has a solid name recognition in Maine's southernmost county and also has the advantage of having his own distinct voter base, as both Pingree and Strimling are rooted in Portland.  Lawrence has carved an image as a moderate during his career in the State Senate and as District Attorney, but he seems to be running as a far left candidate in the 1st CD Race.  His first and only advertisement to date calls for impeaching President Bush and Vice President Cheney.  Lawrence does a decent job of delivering the message, but this seems more like something Ethan Strimling should be running on than Lawrence.  This is not the path to victory for Lawrence.  He should be running on his record of competence and talking about issues, not focusing so heavily on impeachment.  Here is the ad:

Ethan Strimling is trying to appeal to voters as a populist candidate and he is very successful at doing so in this ad below.  Though the ad is littered with cheesy lines, it has good visuals and Strimling does a good job of connecting with the average voter.  

Ethan Strimling Ad- "The Rest of Us"

Television Ads

Here is a roundup of the political ads airing in the Democratic contest for the 1st District.

Worst Ad- Ethan Striming "Oil" Ad

This ad is truly laughable.  In it, Strimling says "I passed a tax credit so towns could develop their own wind power" as if wind power is the solution to our dependence on foreign oil.  Is Ethan really this dumb?   Does he really think that wind power is the solution to all our energy problems?  Well, apparently he does.  

So, while some liberal primary voters might be drawn to this ad because it attacks "Big Oil" and talks up wind power, voters looking for substantive ideas will be sorely disappointed. Might I also add that it looks like a 6th grader could have produced that Strimling ad.  Chellie Pingree also is running an ad about energy independence, and while its also lacking in details, the ad is far more professionally done than Strimling's.  

Chellie Pingree "Get It Right This Time" Ad

Pingree's campaign has four TV ads airing currently and it has made the biggest television buy in advance of the June 10th primary. Her advertisements are all professionally done and I would argue that this ad I have posted below is the one of the best Democratic ads to air thus far. Take a look...

Cash on Hand for CD1 Candidates

With the June 10th primary quickly approaching, it is vitally important for the 1st Congressional District candidates to have enough money to make large media buys. The primary media market for the candidates to advertise through is Portland, though some candidates could choose to advertise some from Portsmouth, NH. Both of these media markets are relatively cheap, but nonetheless the candidates will need to spend a significant percentage of their receipts on television and radio. On average, congressional candidates in the United States spend from 30 % to 40 % of their campaign budget on TV and radio.  

Before looking at how the campaigns are spending their money, it is important to look at where the campaigns sit financially. The campaigns had to file reports with the FEC on May 30 that gave an update of their fundraising and expenditures through May 21st. Below I have listed the latest cash on hand numbers for the 6 Democratic contenders and the 2 Republican candidates. 

Republicans:

Dean Scontras- $ 7,244

                            

Charlie Summers- $ 49,000

Scontras appears to be having some trouble financially with just a shade more than $ 7,000 on hand.  In recent weeks, Scontras has loaned his campaign $ 35,000 and he will certainly have to do so again if he actually hopes to win. Meanwhile, Summers is carrying a substantial amount of debt, nearly $ 75,000, but that is carried over from his campaign in 2004. The latest FEC report showed Summers with $ 49,000 on hand, but he has added at least $ 20,000 to his coffers in the last week after he made a fundraising appearance with boxing legend Joe Frazier. 

Scontras is the wealthiest of the eight CD1 candidates and could take out additional loans to help his campaign offset Summers' financial advantage. In an interview with the Portland Press Herald, however, Scontras said he would not tap into his personal wealth any further.  

Democrats:

Chellie Pingree- $ 351,925

Michael Brennan- $ 27,912

Adam Cote- $ 61,669 

Ethan Strimling- $ 81,476

Steve Meister- $ 187

Mark Lawrence- $ 102,735

The financial advantage that Chellie Pingree holds is actually somewhat of a mirage.  She has many wealthy out of state donors who have given her campaign the $ 2300 maximum for the primary, and have subsequently given another $ 2300 for her general election campaign.  As a result, Chellie is prohibited from spending nearly half ($ 170,000) of her cash on hand because it is earmarked for the general election.  Adam Cote, Mark Lawrence, and Ethan Strimling all have enough money to make a decent push against Pingree, though she is heavily favored to win.  Dr. Steve Meister, who entered the race late and has no prior political experience, looks unlikely to even have enough money to run television or radio advertisements.