The Race for Maine's 1st Congressional District

News and Notes

2008-07-10T02:35:00.003-04:00

The campaign in the 1st Congressional District is relatively quiet right now, but there is a substantial amount of activity going on behind closed doors. After each enduring contentious primary battles, Charlie Summers and Chellie Pingree will both quickly need to restructure their campaigns and gear up for the fall. The task will be especially difficult for Republican Summers, but if he can raise some serious coin and put together a coordinated message, he might just represent one of the few congressional pickup opportunities that Republicans can point to nationally. The next round of financial reports are due on July 15th, and from prior experience we have to assume that Chellie Pingree will have a strong showing, but the real question is how will Summers perform? He is an attractive candidate for sure, but can he break the string of poor fundraising performances that have plagued Republican candidates in the 1st CD for years?

After a bit of a layoff, it is time to launch this blog into its general election phase. I will be providing a weekly roundup of news and notes from Maine's 1st Congressional District from now until Election Day. This blog, however, is not just meant to be an objective news source. There is far too little investigative reporting in Maine politics, so I will seek to uncover the dirt that the campaigns don't want anyone to see. I will also continue to offer up my views on how the campaigns should strategically proceed. Now, to the news and notes...

It appears that the transition phase at the Summers campaign is already under way. I wanted to take a glance at the campaign's website earlier today, but when I made it to the home page, I discovered that the website is being redesigned. The website that Summers had for the primary was adequate, but it is smart strategy for the campaign to come up with something fresh for the general election. The website is slated to relaunch on Friday.

http://summersforcongress.org/

Last week, I discussed the significance of the staff layoffs at the Portland Press Herald. The Press Herald will be losing its three primary political reporters, as the paper's ownership attempts to steer the paper towards profitability. The political coverage in the Press Herald was often times far from stellar, but it was the most consistent source of mainstream political news in the 1st District. These layoffs, then, are certain to have a detrimental effect on the quality of political news coverage in southern Maine.

Al Diamon broke the news about the Portland Press Herald layoffs, and he has an excellent piece out again this week. His article explores the overall lack of quality in Maine's news media, while also looking at how different media outlets in the state are adjusting to declining revenues. Its definitely worth the read...

http://www.downeast.com/Media-Mutt/July-2008/One-Ugly-Year/

The Associated Press has a story out that talks about Maine as a battleground state this fall. Of course, it touches on the presidential race and then provides a brief summary of the important races happening in the state. But, the interesting aspect of the story is when the reporter looks at grassroots activity that is occurring in the state. As usual, the Democrats are hammering the living daylights out of the Republicans on this front. The state Democratic Party has outraised the Maine GOP by more than a 4-1 margin. They have field staffers in all sixteen Maine counties and they will reportedly be opening up offices around the state.

Unfortunately for candidate Summers, the state Republican Party is far behind the Democrats in organizing. Until recently, at least, the Maine Republican Party has carried only three paid staffers. In the story, Republican Dave Emery claims that the GOP is less reliant on grassroots efforts to turn out voters. While I am not going to dispute the fact that Republican voters tend to be more reliable in turning out to vote than Democrats, it definitely spells trouble for Maine Republicans to see their Democratic counterparts with such a monetary and organizational advantage.

http://www.sunjournal.com/story/271386-3/MaineNews/Maine_acts_as_battleground_state/

The Portland Press Herald has an interesting story about an independent "progressive" group that is launching operations in Maine. The group, the Maine People's Alliance, is seeking to register new voters in the state and turn them out to the polls. While the organization is not officially partisan, it is clearly designed to help increase voter turnout among Democrats and left leaning individuals. According to the story, the Maine People's Alliance plans to mobilize 900 to 1,000 volunteers to make 125,000 telephone calls and knock on 100,000 doors across the state. For a small state such as Maine, that is truly a massive effort. Its not going to create a huge turnout surge for Democrats, but its certainly going to make things that much tougher for Maine Republicans to overcome. The reality is that no comparable organization exists for the Conservative Right in Maine.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=196203&ac=PHnws

Another progressive group, Democracy for America, is looking to get involved in Maine this fall. The group recently endorsed Tom Allen's candidacy for the U.S. Senate and Chellie Pingree's candidacy in the 1st Congressional District. Democracy for America will look to steer donations and provide grassroots volunteers to the respective campaigns.

http://www.politickerme.com/jessicaalaimo/1895/progressive-group-backs-allen-pingree

Political Coverage Going from Bad to Worse

2008-06-30T20:14:00.005-04:00

In the lead up to the June 10th primary, I often lamented the lack of solid mainstream political coverage in Maine. Despite having a hotly contested Democratic congressional race and a reasonably competitive Republican contest, there was a surprising lack of television time and print space devoted to those two races. Nearly half of the articles about the congressional race that were featured in Maine newspapers were simply cookie cutter profiles of the eight candidates vying for the 1st CD seat. The other articles generally lacked depth, although there was interesting article in the Portland Press Herald from time to time.

Well, now this week we found out that the Portland Press Herald is making another round of staff layoffs. The political department is going to take a serious hit, with two veteran reporters accepting buyouts from the Press Herald and another reporter being laid off. In addition, the paper will be closing its Washington, DC and Augusta news bureaus. The political beat writers being laid off are Paul Carrier, Kevin Wack, and Jonathan Kaplan. While none of these reporters were fantastic (and Kaplan was almost certainly subpar), they have been writing a large percentage of the political articles that run in Maine newspapers during the past couple of years. Wack, in particular, wrote some stories that effectively highlighted the tension between the different candidates in the 1st CD race. But now, somehow, the political coverage that was already weak in the mainstream Maine media is about to get worse.

I would guess that the Press Herald will augment its political coverage in two ways. First, I suspect that you will see the paper running less articles in general. But, of course, the Press Herald cannot just outright eliminate its political coverage because it has lost its most veteran political beat reporters. The paper has already said it will rely more heavily on the Kennebec Journal staff for coverage of state legislative activity in Augusta. For its other political coverage, including the all important 1st CD congressional race, the paper will have to rely on new reporters to write the political stories. The quality of the articles is going to suffer and you will almost certainly see even more poorly constructed, badly researched stories. These reporters are going to be doing cookie cutter stories that do not hold candidates accountable whatsoever. That is not necessarily their fault, but is the way their job is designed. Most likely, they will have no special training in political science and will lack much knowledge about Maine politics. Furthermore, they will be put under additional strain to pump out stories as they have to shoulder an increased workload after all the layoffs at the Press Herald.

The online blogosphere and the public at large is going to have step up and uncover the dirt on these candidates. You can bet a pretty penny that the TV networks and newspapers will not. Personally, I'm ready for the job...

Scontras' Campaign Failures

2008-06-17T16:14:00.019-04:00

Coming soon...

Official Finalized Results

2008-06-13T12:42:00.003-04:00

It is now Friday, but 8 precincts in the 1st District have still not reported their results. Those 8 precincts have 26,618 registered voters in them. Still not reporting:

Cumberland County

Baldwin: 1217 registered voters

Gorham Ward 3: 3114 registered voters

Portland Ward 2: 3466 registered voters

Kennebec County

Albion: 1470 registered voters

Vienna: 28 registered voters

York County

Kennebunk: 8687 registered voters

Kittery: 6813 registered voters

Limerick: 1823 registered voters

Final Results

The turnout predictions that I made were not that far off, but slightly overestimated turnout in both primaries. With 97 % of precincts reporting, just over 53,000 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, while 33,979 people cast ballots in the Republican primary.

Democratic Primary:

Chellie Pingree- 23,450 (44.22 %)

Adam Cote- 15,033 (28.35 %)

Michael Brennan- 5,676 (10.70 %)

Ethan Strimling- 5,537 (10.44 %)

Mark Lawrence- 2,610 (4.92 %)

Stephen Meister- 721 (1.36 %)

Republican Primary:

Charlie Summers- 20,346 (59.88 %)

Dean Scontras- 13,633 (40.12 %)

Election Night Coverage

2008-06-10T21:25:00.013-04:00

9:26 PM

Democratic Primary- Chellie Pingree- 2567 (40.51%)

   Adam Cote- 1874 (29.57%)
   Ethan Strimling- 843 (13.30%)
   Michael Brennan- 798 (12.59%)
   Mark Lawrence- 169 (2.67%)
   Stephen Meister- 86 (1.36%)

Republican Primary- Charlie Summers- 2070 (55.45%)
Dean Scontras- 1663 (44.55%)

Michael Brennan is performing well in Portland thus far, capturing over 20 % of the vote, higher than Ethan Strimling's total. Mark Lawrence is doing poorly outside of his York County base as expected. Pingree is doing well across the board and she looks like she is in strong position to win.

***** Update 9:47 PM *****

Pingree's lead is holding well at this point. She has about 43 % of the vote, Cote has 27 %, Brennan is in third with 12 %, Strimling has just under 12 %, and Lawrence has 4.5 %. Strimling is doing pathetically so far and his vote total does not look like it is going to improve. He badly under performed in Portland and that is supposed to be his base. Most of York County has not reported, so Cote has a chance, but he is pretty far behind at this point.

Summers has a 56-44 % lead over Dean Scontras right now. His vote tallies in Portland were very solid, but we will have to wait to see if something possibly changes when more of York County and Kennebec County start reporting.

http://www.politickerme.com/jenniferdepaul/1789/me-1-race-summers-cautiously-optimistic

***** Update 10:15 PM *****

A much larger percentage of Cumberland County has reported as compared to York County. Results have not even become to come in for Ogunquit, Old Orchard Beach, Saco, Sanford, Wells, and York. Also, most of Biddeford is still uncounted. Even with those potential pickup opportunities for Cote, the lead that Pingree has accumulated looks pretty insurmountable. She leads Cote by about 2,500 votes right now. Chellie has 40 % of the vote, Cote has 28 %, Brennan and Strimling have 13 %, and Lawrence has about 4 % of the vote.

Summers has widened his lead against Dean Scontras to more than 18 percentage points. He is leading in Cumberland County, Kennebec County, Knox County, and Lincoln County. Scontras leads only in York County and not by much of a margin. It appears that Summers will cruise to victory.

***** Update 11:01 PM *****

This (http://www.politickerme.com/jamespindell/1793/scontras-it-all-about-york-county) was posted on PolitickerME a few minutes ago. Scontras seems to be holding out hope that returns from York County can help him narrow the gap with Charlie Summers. But right now Scontras is only leading in York County by a 54 to 46 % margin, and he has actually lost a couple of towns. Overall, Summers is leading 58 % to 42 % with over two-thirds of precincts reporting.

Chellie Pingree is absolutely crushing the competition. She has over 15,000 votes, with her nearest competitor Adam Cote sitting at just 9,000 votes. In Knox County, she took a whopping 81 % of the vote and in Lincoln County, she won an impressive 65 % of the vote. Cote strongholds still have not reported in York County, but the numbers are simply not there for him. All he can hope for is to narrow the gap and make Pingree's victory a single digit one.

***** Update 11:39 PM *****

The Portland Press Herald has called the Democratic race for Chellie Pingree and the Republican race for Charlie Summers. Just a little while ago, Republican candidate Dean Scontras conceded and offered his full support to Summers in the general election. Scontras hinted that he may run for political office again. Perhaps the 2010 gubernatorial race?

I'm done for the night. Tomorrow, I will have analysis on how Summers and Pingree campaigned their way to victory. Also, look for stories on why Dean Scontras and Ethan Strimling performed so poorly.

Election Predictions

2008-06-10T18:40:00.003-04:00

Charlie Summers will best Dean Scontras by a sizeable margin. It will be too hard for Scontras to overcome the high name identification of Summers. This is not to say that it could not have been done, but Scontras had a poorly run campaign. It did not conserve cash and consequently he could not really get his message out to voters.

Prediction: Summers 59 %, Scontras 41 %

The Democratic race is much tougher to predict, but I am going to stick with the frontrunner and pick Chellie Pingree. Along with Ethan Strimling, Pingree should have the best GOTV operation in the 1st CD. Furthermore, she has run the most ads and already has a solid reputation in the district. Adam Cote has put up a spirited challenge and could emerge victorious if the liberal candidates all split the votes fairly evenly, but I doubt that will happen. Mark Lawrence and Michael Brennan have run uninspired campaigns and will probably be stuck in the single digits. They are fortunate that no public polls have been released, otherwise they would probably perform even more poorly because people would feel like they were wasting a vote. So, to recap, I believe Pingree will win on the strength of her experience, organization, and financial expenditures, but only be a small margin. Adam Cote will finish a strong second and Ethan Strimling could challenge him for that spot if he slightly over performs.

Prediction: Pingree 30.5 %, Cote 28 %, Strimling 24 %, Lawrence 11 %, Brennan 6 %, Meister 0.5 %

Expected Voter Turnout

2008-06-10T14:23:00.004-04:00

The Secretary of State was expecting about 30-35 % of registered voters to cast ballots today. I have listed below the latest figures available from the Secretary of State's Office on voter registration in the 1st CD.

1st CD Voter Registration

Republicans- 138,893
Democrats- 156,331
Independents- 189,736

Total: 499,194

Democrats in the 1st District are highly energized this year, both because of national trends and because of the intense congressional primary. In 1996, when Tom Allen narrowly won a primary victory in the 1st District congressional race, more than 50,000 people cast ballots in the Democratic primary. I would expect an even higher number to have voted today. I think you will see about 35-40 % of all Democratic registered voters in CD1 to vote.

Republicans are less energized nationally, but they still have a competitive primary going on today between Dean Scontras and Charlie Summers. During the past several years, there have been uncontested primaries and about 30,000 people have voted in the Republican primary. In 1994, when there was a contested primary that Jim Longley Jr. won, roughly 40,000 people voted. I would expect a higher turnout than recent primaries, but less percentage wise than the Democrats.

Independents can vote in either primary, but I would expect that anywhere from 2/3 to 3/4 will opt to take a Democratic primary ballot. More independents in Maine tend to be Democratic leaning and the presence of Adam Cote, a moderate Democrat, should make that trend even more marked. In addition, the Democratic primary has more candidates and has been more hotly contested. More money has been spent by Democratic candidates, appealing to more voters. The Republican brand is also unpopular right now.

Projecting this all out I would expect about 40,000 people to vote in the Republican primary today. For the Democrats, I am going to predict that about 60,000 people will vote in that primary.

Voting Tomorrow

2008-06-09T23:19:00.005-04:00

Election day is nearly here. Most polling locations will open at either 7:00 AM or 8:00 AM depending upon where you live. The polls will close statewide at 8:00 PM...

Turnout is expected to be high tomorrow, especially in the 1st CD, which has two highly contested primaries for Tom Allen's congressional seat. There is also a Democratic primary race for the U.S. Senate, as well as several state legislative primaries.

Predictions will be forthcoming sometime during the day tomorrow. I will offer my estimates for voter turnout and will make predictions in the Republican and Democratic 1st CD race. Expect a squeaker in one of the two contests...

Political Roundup

2008-06-09T18:30:00.004-04:00

Ethan Strimling was endorsed by the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) this weekend. According to a campaign press release, the union has about 3,000 members in the state of Maine. The endorsement was something nice for the Strimling campaign to tout, but in reality it will have little effect. The endorsement was made during the final weekend of the campaign and therefore there is little time to mobilize AFSCME members on Strimling's behalf. If made a couple of weeks earlier, the endorsement could have had a real impact.

http://www.ethan08.com/n/afscme-endorses-strimling-his-support-working-fami/

The Credit Union National Association has made a large investment in the 1st CD race backing Adam Cote. The group, which represents the national credit union industry, has made $ 112,000 in independent expenditures on Cote's behalf thus far. There has been substantial criticism by rival campaigns of these independent expenditures and the PAC money that Cote has received. The Cote campaign has implicitly suggested that it has not sought out PAC money and that has simply come to them as a result of agreement on the issues.

It is important to recognize, however, that Cote received nearly $ 39,000 in PAC contributions since April 1st. In addition, the spokesman for the Credit Union National Association told the Portland Press Herald that it only makes independent expenditures on behalf of one or two candidates per election cycle. Considering these facts, it seems pretty clear that the Cote campaign must have been actively seeking these outside contributions. He has received much more PAC money than most of the other candidates in the race, and yet he is not the presumed frontrunner. The only way the Cote campaign could have amassed all of this PAC money is by actively soliciting and meeting with the groups. Here is a link to the story...

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192609&ac=

CQ Politics has a nice overview of the 1st CD race in Maine. Anthony Corrado, a superb politcal science professor at Colby College, told CQ Politics that Ethan Strimling has not capitalized on the opportunity to challenge Pingree. I tend to agree with this view... I think that Strimling will perform well, but not well enough to actually challenge Pingree for a victory. The article zeroes in on Adam Cote and Chellie Pingree as the two viable contenders on the Democratic side and suggests that Charlie Summers is well positioned to pick up the Republican nod.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002891310&parm1=5&cpage=1

Secretary of State Matt Dunlap is projecting a turnout of between 30-35 % for tomorrow's primary. That would be much a higher turnout than is typical for a primary election. I will have my own projection on turnout posted on the blog tomorrow...

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192728&ac=

The Portland Press Herald also had a story about voter outreach in yesterday's paper. The story talks about how close recent contested primaries have been in the 1st District and how voter outreach has been key. When Tom Allen won the Democratic primary in 1996, for example, he bested his rival candidate by less than 2,000 votes. Primaries always have lower turnout than general election, and for that reason voter outreach is more important than it will be in November. If a particular campaign has a top notch GOTV operation, it could make a big difference in their overall vote total on Tuesday. I would expect that Chellie Pingree will have a superior turnout effort, as compared to newcomer Adam Cote, and that could be the difference between a win and a loss for her.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192702&ac=

Media Advertising on the Republican Side

2008-06-09T17:55:00.003-04:00

The Republican field in the 1st District has raised considerably less money than the Democratic one. Political newcomer Dean Scontras has raised about $ 230,000 and has loaned his campaign nearly an additional $ 100,000. Charlie Summers, who only returned from Iraq a month ago, has raised about $ 200,000, but retained more cash on hand as of May 21st.

The Scontras campaign made a decision to not purchase any advertising time on television. In a recent Portland Press Herald article, Scontras aide Dan Schuberth said that the campaign decided to focus on radio advertising and direct mail. This is absolutely a poor decision by the Scontras campaign and speaks to the complete mismanagement that has plagued his campaign. Unlike all the other campaigns, the Scontras campaign did not build up its cash reserves during the 4th quarter of last year and the 1st quarter of this year. In fact, it had a staggering 87 % burn rate in the October 1-December 31, 2007 fundraising period.

Airing television ads was absolutely critical to Scontras' success in this primary. As a political newcomer, Scontras desperately needed to boost his name identification. Radio advertisements and direct mail are great tools, but not using television was a mistake for the campaign. On May 21st, Scontras reported just $ 7,000 cash on hand remaining, even though his media buy and direct mail spending only totaled about $ 45,000. Unless he makes additional loans to his campaign, he has virtually no money left to spend.

Charlie Summers is not spending substantially more than Scontras, but he simply does not have to. As an experienced politician in Maine, Summers already has relatively high name identification in the 1st District. As of May 21st, Summers also retained a significant amount of cash, which he has probably plowed into additional advertising time and direct mail. Below I have listed the media buys purchased by the Summers campaign:

May 13- Purchased Media Buy of $ 8,975
May 19- Purchased Media Buy of $ 5,885
May 21- Purchased Media Buy of $ 42,500

So, by May 21st, the Summers campaign had purchased nearly $ 60,000 of advertising time on radio and television. With more than $ 50,000 still in its coffers at the time, the campaign may have purchased more time since then. The campaign has been airing one ad, which effectively shows the breadth of Summers' experience. It touts his experience as a state senator, as the regional director of the Small Business Administration, and as a U.S. military serviceman. The ad was produced by Stevens, Reed, Curcio, and Potholm, a top notch media production outfit that created the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads in 2004.

One must wonder how the Scontras campaign managed to waste so much money. Dean Scontras is a very articulate candidate with great ideas and a great vision, but his campaign has put him in a position where it will be very hard to win the primary and impossible to win the general election. I will look tomorrow at how the Scontras campaign got into to its current financial mess and what could have been done differently.

Trivia Answer

2008-06-08T21:46:00.006-04:00

I asked everyone yesterday to guess how many states the Pingree campaign has received contributions from. Well, here is a list of the states that have made donations to Pingree, as of May 21st....

Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin

It is hard to accurately count a list that long, so I'll just tell you the exact number. Chellie Pingree has received contributions from a staggering 37 states. If you are interested in helping the Pingree campaign go fully national, then talk to your friends in Wyoming and Montana and tell them to make a contribution.

Adam Cote Under Fire

2008-06-08T18:35:00.008-04:00

The Democratic contenders for the 1st CD seat have all trained the fire towards Adam Cote in recent days. For Cote, this should be construed as a positive development. It indicates that the other candidates in the race view him as a legitimate threat and are trying to halt his momentum. Since there has no public polling done for this race, you might be asking what are they basing this assessment of Cote's candidacy on?

Well, certainly there has been a lot of positive feedback about Cote from individual voters. The other candidates might have sensed this several weeks ago and decided that Cote was going to make a big move towards the end of the primary. Cote has also raised a lot of money for a first time candidate, which has allowed him to spread a positive message on the TV and radio airwaves. He has the benefit of having served in the armed forces and he comes across as a very thoughtful person on the issues.

But, there is another possibility to consider. Four of the Democratic candidates (Adam Cote, Mark Lawrence, Chellie Pingree, and Ethan Strimling) have hired consulting firms to conduct polling for them. Now, there is no way of knowing if any of this private polling has been done recently, but I would suspect that at least the resource rich Pingree campaign is still paying for polling.

The polling, in all likelihood, shows a very positive upward trend for Cote and the other campaigns are probably fearful that Cote is on his way to surpassing their numbers. I have heard that Pingree's campaign views Cote as its most viable opponent and that makes sense in light of them recently sending out a mailer to voters attacking Cote's record. The Pingree campaign is not alone in attacking Cote. Mark Lawrence and Ethan Strimling have criticized Cote for accepting a contribution from BIPAC, a leading business PAC that has members of Halliburton, Exxon-Mobil, and other 'contemptible' companies on its board.

Wally Edge from PolitickerME reports that there has been a steady barrage of anti-Cote letters to the editor and a general word of mouth campaign designed to bring down Cote. Here is that story: http://politickerme.com/wallyedgeme/1759/incoming... Recently, Cote has also been a constant fixture in the news, but not necessarily for good reasons. The Portland Press Herald has run several stories on Cote that might not go over well with Democratic primary voters. For example, the Strimling campaign has claimed that Cote has received greater financial support from Republicans than Democrats during his campaign.

The most recent story in the Press Herald focuses on independent expenditures that have been made on Cote's behalf by a national group that represents the credit union industry. The group has poured more than $ 112,000 into the 1st CD race to help elect Cote (http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192609&ac=). This story should not do much damage itself, but I have to believe that the attacks on Cote over the past week have done some damage to his brand.

Even with Cote's improbable rise, one would have to assume that Chellie Pingree is still the frontrunner. That is why it is so interesting that Strimling, Lawrence, and Brennan all seem to be making negative attacks against Cote, not Pingree. I would guess that part of the reason for this development is that Cote is an easier target to attack. I say this not because Cote is a bad candidate, but because he is an unorthodox Democratic candidate. It is seen as acceptable to attack Cote for not being a strong enough Democrat, but it is hard to attack Pingree because she has impeccable credentials as a liberal progressive. Pingree is sitting pretty right now. She is the undisputed frontrunner, but she is not being attacked like a frontrunner.

Media Presence

2008-06-07T16:31:00.009-04:00

How much of a media presence have each of the campaigns had over the past few weeks? Well, we know that Adam Cote has been earning a lot of free media, although lately much of that free media has been negative. The other candidates have also received a fair share of free media, especially during the past couple of weeks. The Portland Press Herald and other newspapers in the 1st District have covered the race consistently. There have been numerous TV and radio debates between the candidates over the past couple of weeks. The local morning and evening news broadcasts have featured stories on the candidates. And, there has been substantial coverage of the 1st CD race on the Internet.

Most voters, however, have not seen very much of this free media. It is, therefore, incumbent upon the candidates to reach out as vigorously as possible to potential voters through paid media. A typical congressional campaign will want to spend at least 30 % of their operating expenses on television and radio, with additional money set aside for direct mail. Let's quickly take a look at expenditures on paid media by the 1st CD Democratic candidates. We have expense reports available through May 21st of this year...

Chellie Pingree

May 8th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 72,000

May 12th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 65,000

May 16th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 88,350

Total Cost of Media Buys: $ 225,350

Mark Lawrence

May 19th- $ 83,938

Michael Brennan

April 16th- Purchased Media Buy of $23,583

May 6th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 5,190

May 14th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 7,670

May 19th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 7,945

Total Cost of Media Buys: $ 44,388

Adam Cote

May 9th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 183,378

Ethan Strimling

May 20th- Purchased Media Buy of $ 187,000

The Pingree campaign has spent the most on paid advertising to date, though Ethan Strimling and Adam Cote are competitive with her on the airwaves. Their campaigns had both purchased approximately $ 185,000 for TV and radio air time as of May 21st, when the latest FEC reports were filed. Chellie Pingree made a slightly larger media buy (about $ 225,000) and she retained $ 100,000 more in primary funds that she could spend on the race as of May 21st. While Cote and Strimling both had less than $ 80,000 left in their campaign treasuries on May 21st, Pingree had nearly $ 200,000 that she could still spend for the primary. Almost certainly, she has made additional media buys since that time. Her campaign has dominated the TV airwaves during May and June, with four well done advertisements that showcase her progressive credentials to voters.

Despite being outspent on paid media by Pingree, the Cote and Strimling campaigns are still in a position to nab a victory on Tuesday. Reaching spending parity with Pingree was never a realistic goal... the campaigns simply needed to get enough air time to disseminate their own messages. The Maine media market is quite cheap to advertise in and every indicator suggests that Cote and Strimling have been able to buy enough advertising time to get their messages out to voters.

Most of the television advertisements that have aired during this race have been on the major networks, particularly during the morning and evening news. It does not make sense for a congressional candidate to advertise to a national audience, as they would have to do on cable networks, so they mostly stick to the local affiliates of ABC, FOX, NBC, and CBS. Last week, I talked to people in the advertising departments at WCSH and WMTW to find out some information on the cost of advertising on their stations and both networks were kind enough to oblige.

Advertising on WCSH is the most expensive of the four Portland TV affiliates because its new broadcasts get the highest ratings. To run a 30 second television ad on the WCSH 6:00 PM News would cost a campaign about $ 1,000, while the same ad would cost $ 300 to run on the 5:00 PM News and $ 250 to run on the 11:00 PM News. The cost of running an ad on WMTW is much cheaper. For the 6:00 PM news, a 30 second political ad would cost $ 400. Interestingly, to run an ad from 7-9 AM will only cost a campaign about $ 85. I also asked WCSH how much it would cost to run a 30 second ad during primetime (8:00-11:00 PM) and was told, depending on the show, that I should expect to pay between $ 750 and $ 1,000. Radio advertisements are even cheaper.

As you can see, political advertising in Maine is a relative bargain. According to a story in the Portland Press Herald, a block of 80 advertisements on WCSH would cost a campaign about $ 20,000. That amount of advertising would not be close to reaching media saturation, which means Michael Brennan and to a lesser extent Mark Lawrence, are in trouble. But campaigns spending $ 200,000 and above on advertising could run at least 1,000 television ads, which is plenty.

Based on the quality of television advertisements and the amount spent on media buys, it would appear that Chellie Pingree and Adam Cote have reaped the most benefit from paid media. They both have run effective ads and have spent considerable sums on television and radio. Mark Lawrence has been the big loser in terms of paid media. He has similar fundraising numbers to Adam Cote and Ethan Strimling but is only spending half as much as their campaigns on advertising. Furthermore, the one ad that Lawrence is running right now does not serve him well, as it tries to portray him as a left-wing crusader out to impeach President Bush. It does not discuss his record of competence and moves him away from his reputation as a political moderate.

Look for a write up on the Republican media presence in the 1st CD tomorrow or Monday...

Trivia Question

2008-06-07T16:04:00.011-04:00

The other day I zeroed in on Chellie Pingree's fundraising and found that nearly 3/4 of her donations have come from out of state. Pingree has raised money from Washington D.C. and the Virgin Islands, but here is the trivia question: how many states has Pingree received donations from during her campaign for Congress?

I will post the answer tomorrow evening...

Political Roundup

2008-06-06T19:45:00.005-04:00

Republican 1st CD candidate Dean Scontras made a great move yesterday to gain some media attention. He offered to pay for the state and federal gas taxes for all motorists fueling their cars in Manchester, ME. This did not cost the campaign much money at all (it paid the taxes for about 100 motorists), but it got substantial press coverage. During this campaign cycle, a number of campaigns nationally have used this gimmick to get media attention. Most of those campaigns have offered to pay in full for motorists to fill up, not just for their taxes. The Scontras campaign, however, is broke and could not afford to do that. Quick below for the full story:

http://www.sunjournal.com/story/268653-3/MaineNews/Candidate_gives_gastax_rebates/

Continuing on the Republican race, the Portland Press Herald had story today about the TV debate on MPBN between Dean Scontras and Charlie Summers. The story focuses on the differences between Scontras and Summers on their views about Iraq. The problem is that this story epitomizes how lame the mainstream media has been in covering the race for the 1st District. For one thing, there is virtually no difference in Summers' and Scontras' positions on Iraq. Furthermore, this story was probably written in twenty minutes...

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192395&ac=PHnws

The Democratic race is seeing a lot of sniping between the candidates in the closing days of the campaign. Ethan Strimling, in particular, seems eager to pick fights with his fellow candidates. This Portland Press story details the back and forth and wisely points out that no independent polling has been done in this race. It will be refreshing to see voters head to the polls without having to look at polls beforehand. Interestingly, the outcome of the race very will could hinge on this lack of polling. Mark Lawrence and Michael Brennan should be non-factors in this race, but many of their voters might not realize they have no shot of winning. Mr. Cote stands to benefit most from this scenario occurring. In any case, here is the story:

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=192244&ac=

Two new campaign commercials now on the airwaves in the 1st CD race. Ethan Strimling has released a new advertisement touting a bill that he passed in the State Senate to provide property tax relief to Mainers. This ad is effective, especially since none of the other candidates have ads airing that talk about the mortgage crisis. Having all the different people talk highly of Ethan is great, but does anyone else feel like Ethan looks like a dope in these commercials?

Strimling Ad- "My Castle"

The other new advertisement comes from the Cote campaign. It is very simple, but also very effective for a fairly unknown candidate like Cote. The ad highlights the endorsement of Cote by the Portland Press Herald and then basically repeats his qualifications from the campaign's first two TV ads. The endorsement of a major paper like the Press Herald is a great catch for Cote because many voters will now feel more comfortable with him. He is an unknown, and some people are probably wary of voting for him, even if they like some of his message. The endorsement serves as validation for him.

Word on the street is that many moderate Republican voters are crossing over to vote for Cote in the Democratic primary. State Senator Karl Turner was one of them.

Cote Ad- "One Democrat Stands Out"

A Closer Look at Chellie Pingree's Fundraising

2008-06-05T12:33:00.008-04:00

Chellie Pingree has raised a staggering $ 1,359,666 for her congressional campaign, more than twice as much as her closest competitors for the 1st CD seat. How is this possible? Where is Chellie raising all of this money from? Well, an analysis of her FEC reports reveals some pretty startling information. Just take a look at this...

Top 10 States Contributing to Pingree Campaign

(Itemized Contributions as of 5/21/2008)

1. New York- $ 316,037.22

2. Maine- $ 294,233.90

3. Connecticut- $ 97,725

4. California- $ 81,150

5. New Jersey- $ 48,825

6. Massachusetts- $ 44,350

7. Washington D.C.- $ 42,025

8. Pennsylvania- $ 23,250

9. Virgin Islands- $ 23,000

10. Florida- $ 19,050

*Contributions are itemized on a FEC report if the donor who is making the contribution has given $ 200 or more to the candidate

If your reaction was "I thought Chellie was running for office in Maine?" then you are not alone. Everyone knows that Chellie is a very connected person nationally, especially after her time as President of Common Cause, but who could possibly have expected her to have raised more from New York donors than Maine donors.

What if Chellie had not raised all this money from out of state? Well, interestingly, she would not even lead the pack in itemized contributions...

Money Raised from Maine Donors

(Itemized Contributions as of 5/21/2008)

1. Ethan Strimling- $ 334,297.12

2. Chellie Pingree- $ 294,233.90

3. Adam Cote- $ 270,476

The dreaded FEC reports also show that Pingree has the highest percentage of out of state donations of any candidate in the 1st CD race. A whopping 73.1 % of her $ 1,095,270 in itemized contributions come from non-Maine based donors. In fact, the $ 801,037.22 she has raised from non-Maine donors beats the overall fundraising mark of Ethan Strimling, her closest competitor in the money race, by over $180,000. Here is the data that shows out of state contributions for the CD1 candidates:

Michael Brennan:

Out of State Donations- $ 45,585

Total Itemized Donations- $ 158,002

% From Outside of Maine- 28.9 %

Adam Cote:

Out of State Donations- $ 168,226

Total Itemized Donations- $ 438,702

% From Outside of Maine- 38.3 %

Chellie Pingree:

Out of State Donations- $ 801,037.22

Total Itemized Donations- $ 1,095,270.12

% From Outside of Maine- 73.1 %

Mark Lawrence:

Out of State Donations- $ 120,147

Total Itemized Donations- $ 357,780

% From Outside of Maine- 33.6 %

Ethan Strimling:

Out of State Donations- $ 176,260

Total Itemized Donations- $ 510,757.12

% From Outside of Maine- 34.5 %

Dean Scontras:

Out of State Donations- $ 118,100

Total Itemized Donations- $ 206,803

% From Outside of Maine- 57.1 %

Charlie Summers:

Out of State Donations- $ 38,250

Total Itemized Donations- $ 152,642.85

% From Outside of Maine- 25.1 %

So, the next time you turn on the television and see a Chellie Pingree ad, just remember one thing.... the ad was probably paid for by out of state contributors.

More Television Ads

2008-06-04T22:58:00.003-04:00

Here are some more of the TV ads being run by the Democratic candidates in the 1st CD. Adam Cote has produced some excellent ads that complement his message as a competent outsider with a good feel for the issues. Cote's first ad, a biographical piece, is the only 60 second ad that has aired in the race. The ad opens with a seemingly uninspired Adam Cote speaking to the camera, but the rest of the ad features moving footage of Cote meeting with business leaders, serving in Iraq, and meeting with Maine families. It does a great job of showcasing Cote's biography and how his previous life experiences would serve him well in Congress. His second ad is equally effectively, emphasizing his positions on the issues and clearly separating himself from the other Democratic contenders as the most thoughtful and substantive. I have one criticism for Cote in these advertisements and also more generally, and that is that he needs to show more emotion and passion when he speaks.

Best Ad- Adam Cote Biographical Ad

Adam Cote's Second Ad

Mark Lawrence is a candidate who has been flying under the radar during this primary. But he has accrued an impressive list of endorsements, as documented on his website. As the District Attorney of York County, Lawrence has a solid name recognition in Maine's southernmost county and also has the advantage of having his own distinct voter base, as both Pingree and Strimling are rooted in Portland. Lawrence has carved an image as a moderate during his career in the State Senate and as District Attorney, but he seems to be running as a far left candidate in the 1st CD Race. His first and only advertisement to date calls for impeaching President Bush and Vice President Cheney. Lawrence does a decent job of delivering the message, but this seems more like something Ethan Strimling should be running on than Lawrence. This is not the path to victory for Lawrence. He should be running on his record of competence and talking about issues, not focusing so heavily on impeachment. Here is the ad:

Ethan Strimling is trying to appeal to voters as a populist candidate and he is very successful at doing so in this ad below. Though the ad is littered with cheesy lines, it has good visuals and Strimling does a good job of connecting with the average voter.

Ethan Strimling Ad- "The Rest of Us"

Television Ads

2008-06-04T15:20:00.013-04:00

Here is a roundup of the political ads airing in the Democratic contest for the 1st District.

Worst Ad- Ethan Striming "Oil" Ad

This ad is truly laughable. In it, Strimling says "I passed a tax credit so towns could develop their own wind power" as if wind power is the solution to our dependence on foreign oil. Is Ethan really this dumb? Does he really think that wind power is the solution to all our energy problems? Well, apparently he does.

So, while some liberal primary voters might be drawn to this ad because it attacks "Big Oil" and talks up wind power, voters looking for substantive ideas will be sorely disappointed. Might I also add that it looks like a 6th grader could have produced that Strimling ad. Chellie Pingree also is running an ad about energy independence, and while its also lacking in details, the ad is far more professionally done than Strimling's.

Chellie Pingree "Get It Right This Time" Ad

Pingree's campaign has four TV ads airing currently and it has made the biggest television buy in advance of the June 10th primary. Her advertisements are all professionally done and I would argue that this ad I have posted below is the one of the best Democratic ads to air thus far. Take a look...

Cash on Hand for CD1 Candidates

2008-06-03T20:19:00.010-04:00

With the June 10th primary quickly approaching, it is vitally important for the 1st Congressional District candidates to have enough money to make large media buys. The primary media market for the candidates to advertise through is Portland, though some candidates could choose to advertise some from Portsmouth, NH. Both of these media markets are relatively cheap, but nonetheless the candidates will need to spend a significant percentage of their receipts on television and radio. On average, congressional candidates in the United States spend from 30 % to 40 % of their campaign budget on TV and radio.

Before looking at how the campaigns are spending their money, it is important to look at where the campaigns sit financially. The campaigns had to file reports with the FEC on May 30 that gave an update of their fundraising and expenditures through May 21st. Below I have listed the latest cash on hand numbers for the 6 Democratic contenders and the 2 Republican candidates.

Republicans:

Dean Scontras- $ 7,244

Charlie Summers- $ 49,000

Scontras appears to be having some trouble financially with just a shade more than $ 7,000 on hand. In recent weeks, Scontras has loaned his campaign $ 35,000 and he will certainly have to do so again if he actually hopes to win. Meanwhile, Summers is carrying a substantial amount of debt, nearly $ 75,000, but that is carried over from his campaign in 2004. The latest FEC report showed Summers with $ 49,000 on hand, but he has added at least $ 20,000 to his coffers in the last week after he made a fundraising appearance with boxing legend Joe Frazier.

Scontras is the wealthiest of the eight CD1 candidates and could take out additional loans to help his campaign offset Summers' financial advantage. In an interview with the Portland Press Herald, however, Scontras said he would not tap into his personal wealth any further.

Democrats:

Chellie Pingree- $ 351,925

Michael Brennan- $ 27,912

Adam Cote- $ 61,669

Ethan Strimling- $ 81,476

Steve Meister- $ 187

Mark Lawrence- $ 102,735

The financial advantage that Chellie Pingree holds is actually somewhat of a mirage. She has many wealthy out of state donors who have given her campaign the $ 2300 maximum for the primary, and have subsequently given another $ 2300 for her general election campaign. As a result, Chellie is prohibited from spending nearly half ($ 170,000) of her cash on hand because it is earmarked for the general election. Adam Cote, Mark Lawrence, and Ethan Strimling all have enough money to make a decent push against Pingree, though she is heavily favored to win. Dr. Steve Meister, who entered the race late and has no prior political experience, looks unlikely to even have enough money to run television or radio advertisements.